航空业的排放 GHGs emissions from aviation sector

[摘要]整个交通行业当前的温室气体排放将近占世界总排放的14%，在电力和土地利用部门的后面，但是和农业活动排放有着相同的排放比例。此外，交通业排放在世界经合组织里是增长最快的（1990-2002），在非经合组织增长第二快，增速分别是25% and 36%。交通排放的大头在公路交通（76%），航空业次之（12%）。

航空业占全球二氧化碳总排放的比例在不同来源有不同的数字，例如IPCC(1999)的计算结果是2%，WRI(2005)的报告称是2%，在2050要增至3%。但是如果考虑进去非二氧化碳效应，这个数字要翻2-4倍。虽然现在航空排放远低于电力能源行业和汽车排放，但是考虑到航空业的增长速度以及技术瓶颈，它的排放在所有交通行业是增长最快的，在过去的二十年中年增长速度是9%，据估计在2010年后，这个增长速度还会维持甚至继续扩大。到2050航空业的排放会是2005年的3倍，而公路交通为2倍。意味着如果现在不采取行动，一味的扩大民用航空器的数量，整个行业的排放将会占越来越大的比例。同时，象中国这样的崛起发展中国家，增长速度甚至会更快，现在的年平均增幅在14%左右，而且在未来的二十年增速也会维持在10%以上，尤其是国际航线方面增幅更快。

此外，在不同的情景分析中（senario analysis)中，现实情况不容乐观，英国，德国，以及澳大利亚的分析表明，如果按中等增速，最可能的情景，航空排放在2050年会占英国和德国总排放的40%左右，会占澳大利亚的10%。

因此，了解中国的现在排放和未来的情景分析应该是很有意义的，尤其是在西方的压力以及自身节能目标下，它对国家的气候变化方案的制定以及在国际谈判中的博弈都很必要。

Contribution of aviation sector to CO2 emissions

Transport sector accounts for around 14 % of total human-induced GHGs emissions in the world, behind power generation and land use sectors, with the same ratio as the agriculture sector. Transport was the fastest growth sector of GHGs emissions between 1990 and 2002 in OECD countries and the second fastest in non-OECD countries, with the increase of 25% and 36%, respectively (Stern, 2006). The major contributions to transport are from road transport (76%) and aviation (12%), and the carbon dioxide emissions from aviation are 0.7 billion tonnes per year, accounting for 1.6 percent of GHGs emissions (WRI, 2005). While according to IPCC (1999), aviation contributes 2% of the global CO2 emissions and it would increase to 3% by 2050; if taking into account the non-CO2 effects of aviation , this figure would account for around 5% of total warming in 2050 (IPCC, 1999).

Although the emissions are not that extensive as those from power generation or vehicles, enough attention should be paid to avoid the over-expansion of aviation sector, because civil aviation traffic has increased dramatically with an average annual growth rate of 9% in the past decades. From 2010, it is expected to expand further by 5% per year, among all modes of transportation, aviation has been considered as the fastest growing sources of GHGs both in the developed and developing world; between 2005 and 2050, the CO2 emissions are expected to triple over the period, in comparison to the double of road transport emissions (Stern, 2006). If taken into account the non-CO2 effects associated with aviation, the aviation emissions will be 2 to 4 times larger as mentioned.

航海业二氧化碳排放占全球总量的3.5%-Ship CO2 emissions at 3.5 pct of global total

[摘要] 2007年世界航海业的总排放达到11.2亿吨二氧化碳当量，大约全球总排放的3.5%,(another source claims 4.5 percent) 。根据国际海运组织IMO的最新报告。如果持续增长，国际海运在2020之前会增加30%，达到14.75亿吨二氧化碳当量。

不过海运这个比例的排放倒挺令人吃惊，因为之前IPCC就警告说海运的排放量会远高于航空。2002年航空总排放是4.92亿吨，2005年约7亿吨，约占总排放的 1.6-2%。外加非二氧化碳效应，航空业排放大概占全球的总排放要增加3-5倍,到2050年会达到全球总排放的5%。

目前，虽然航海和航空的排放增长很快，但是还没有并入到 京都议定书 下，因为把这些排放归类的每个国家的复杂性。

LONDON (Reuters) - Annual carbon dioxide emissions from world shipping reached 1.12 billion tonnes in 2007, about 3.5 percent of total global carbon emissions, a scientific report by the world's top maritime body shows. The report also showed that growing international seaborne trade and related fuel consumption will raise carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from ships by 30 percent to 1.475 billion tonnes by 2020.

Shipping and aviation emissions are rising rapidly but are not accounted for in the international Kyoto Protocol on global warming, because of the complexity of attributing these emissions to individual states. The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) last year said aviation CO2 emissions in 2002 were 492 million tonnes, far less than the IMO estimate of ship emissions even though the airline industry has come under far more scrutiny.

The new study by a group of experts was finalized by the U.N. International Maritime Organisation (IMO) in late December but only distributed to countries party to IMO regulations who met to set new pollution regulations last week.

来源 Source 路透社 Reuters

बसिक 航空业温室气体排放基础知识

[摘要]航空温室气体排放来自于航空燃料(jet kerosene and jet gasoline)和航空汽油。后者仅仅用在特殊发动机的机型，所占比例小于1%。

影响排放量的因素：
1 运行中航空器的数量和型号
2 飞行器发动机的类型和效率
3 使用的燃料
4 飞行的长度
5 动力参数设置
6 每段飞行的时间
7 飞行的高度

飞机的运行主要分为
1 起飞和降落， 10%的排放发生
2 空中飞行， 90%的排放发生

Emissions from aviation come from the combustion of jet fuel (jet kerosene and jet gasoline) and aviation gasoline (A fuel used only in small piston engine aircraft, and which generally represents less than 1 percent of fuel used in aviation).(IPCC 2006)

Emissions depend on the number and type of aircraft operations; the types and efficiency of the aircraft engines; the fuel used; the length of flight; the power setting; the time spent at each stage of flight; and, to a lesser degree, the altitude at which exhaust gases are emitted.

For the purpose of these guidelines, operations of aircraft are divided into
(1) Landing/Take-Off (LTO) cycle and
(2) Cruise.

Generally, about 10 percent of aircraft emissions of all types, except hydrocarbons and CO, are produced during airport ground level operations and during the LTO cycle15. The bulk of aircraft emissions (90 percent) occur at higher altitudes. For hydrocarbons and CO, the split is closer to 30 percent local emissions and 70 percent at higher altitudes (FAA, 2004).

欧盟对于航空业的气候变化政策 EU's climate policy toward aviation

[摘要]欧盟打算把航空业并入EU-ETS,自2011年起欧盟内航线都要并入这个排放交易计划的第二期(2008-12)，自2012年所有起降欧盟内的航班也会并入。

The EU plans to include aviation in the EU ETS from 2011 for intra-EU flights, with ALL flights departing from or arriving in the EU included from 2012.

Aviation emissions are expected to be included from 2010, in Phase 2 -2008-12.The EU ETS was launched in 2005 and covers around 45 per cent of EU carbon dioxide emissions. Under the scheme, power stations, refineries and heavy industry across Europe are given a limit to how much carbon dioxide they can emit. Participants in the scheme must hold sufficient carbon dioxide permits to match their levels of pollution. Companies that exceed their permits must buy extra allowances from those companies who have managed to reduce their emissions – or pay stiff fines. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme is currently under review.

EU timetable FOR INCORPORATION OF AVIATION 时间表

1. Aviation ETS proposal published by the European Commission December 2006.

2. The proposal is currently progressing through the ‘Co-decision process’ in which both the EU Parliament and the European Council have joint powers to decide.

3. Amendments to the design / effectiveness of aviation ETS will be voted on by EU Parliament this autumn (2007). The Parliament’s Transport and Environment committees have both produced reports recommending changes to the proposal. These committees will discuss and vote on amendments to the proposal during the next few months. In November all MEPs have a say in a ‘plenary’ vote.

4. Aviation ETS directive will be finalised 2008

(Source: wikipedia)

炼油业和航空业的温室气体许可拍卖制度即将建立

欧盟准备从2013年起引入温室气体许可拍卖制度，来限制炼油业和航空业的温室气体排放 EU to phase in CO2 auctions for refinery and airlines By Darren Ennis

大意是2013年后排放超标要通过拍卖的方式购买许可，尤其是炼油业和航空业，然后好多利益相关机构在扯皮。比如BP和Shell都争辩说这样会降低它们与非欧盟炼油业的竞争力；估计航空业马上也要有所回应。

之前有些背景新闻，以后的帖子可以单独介绍下。尤其是关于航空业的碳排放纷争，欧盟内的航空业迟早会被这轮新的抗击气候变化浪潮所降低增长速度。

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union, responding to industry pressure, will phase in auctions for greenhouse gas emissions permits for refineries and airlines from 2013 as part of a plan to combat climate change, an EU source said on Monday.

Speaking after senior European Commission officials put finishing touches to proposals to be adopted on Wednesday, the source said the power generation sector would have to buy 100 percent of emissions permits in auctions from 2013.

But in response to lobbying from governments and key industries, officials had agreed that refineries and airlines would start at a level of 20 percent of permits auctioned in 2013, with the rest issued for free, rising by 10 percent a year to reach 100 percent in 2020.

(writing by Paul Taylor, editing by John Picinich) http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL2130389320080122